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Published online before print November 4, 2008, 10.1148/radiol.2493070847
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(Radiology 2009;250:264-272.)
© RSNA, 2008

Thoracic Imaging

Smooth or Attached Solid Indeterminate Nodules Detected at Baseline CT Screening in the NELSON Study: Cancer Risk during 1 Year of Follow-up1

Dong Ming Xu, MD, PhD, Hester J. van der Zaag-Loonen, MD, PhD, Matthijs Oudkerk, MD, PhD, Ying Wang, MD, Rozemarijn Vliegenthart, MD, PhD, Ernst T. Scholten, MD, Johny Verschakelen, MD, PhD, Mathias Prokop, MD, PhD, Harry J. de Koning, MD, PhD, and Rob J. van Klaveren, MD, PhD

1 From the Department of Radiology, University Medical Center Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, Postbus 30.001, 9700 RB Groningen, the Netherlands (D.M.X., H.J.v.d.Z.L., M.O., Y.W., R.V.); Department of Radiology, Kennemer Gasthuis, Haarlem, the Netherlands (E.T.S.); Department of Radiology, University Hospital Gasthuisberg, Leuven, Belgium (J.V.); Department of Radiology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands (M.P.); and Departments of Public Health (H.J.d.K., R.J.v.K.) and Pulmonology (R.J.v.K.), Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Ne-therlands. From the 2006 RSNA Annual Meeting. Received May 14, 2007; revision requested July 16; revision received August 31; accepted October 12; final version accepted June 23, 2008. Address correspondence to M.O. (e-mail: m.oudkerk{at}rad.umcg.nl).

Purpose: To retrospectively determine whether baseline nodule characteristics at 3-month and 1-year volume doubling time (VDT) are predictive for lung cancer in solid indeterminate noncalcified nodules (NCNs) detected at baseline computed tomographic (CT) screening.

Materials and Methods: The study, conducted between April 2004 and May 2006, was institutional review board approved. Patient consent was waived for this retrospective evaluation. NCNs between 5 and 10 mm in diameter (n = 891) were evaluated at 3 months and 1 year to assess growth (VDT < 400 days). Baseline assessments were related to growth at 3 months and 1 year by using {chi}2 and Mann-Whitney U tests. Baseline assessments and growth were related to the presence of malignancy by using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.

Results: At 3 months and at 1 year, 8% and 1% of NCNs had grown, of which 15% and 50% were malignant, respectively. One-year growth was related to morphology (P < .01), margin (P < .0001), location (P < .001), and size (P < .01). All cancers were nonspherical and purely intraparenchymal, without attachment to vessels, the pleura, or fissures. In nonsmooth unattached nodules, a volume of 130 mm3 or larger was the only predictor for malignancy (odds ratio, 6.3; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.7, 23.0). After the addition of information on the 3-month VDT, large volume (odds ratio, 4.9; 95% CI: 1.2, 20.1) and 3-month VDT (odds ratio, 15.6; 95% CI: 4.5, 53.5) helped predict malignancy. At 1 year, only the 1-year growth remained (odds ratio, 213.3; 95% CI: 18.7, 2430.9) as predictor for malignancy.

Conclusion: In smooth or attached solid indeterminate NCNs, no malignancies were found at 1-year follow-up. In nonsmooth purely intraparenchymal NCNs, size is the main baseline predictor for malignancy. When follow-up data are available, growth is a strong predictor for malignancy, especially at 1-year follow-up.

© RSNA, 2008