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(Radiology. 1999;213:395-399.)
© RSNA, 1999


Neuroradiology

Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis: Longitudinal Analysis of MR Images-Lack of Correlation between Changes in T2 Lesion Volume and Clinical Findings1

Yukio Miki, MD, PhD, Robert I. Grossman, MD, Jayaram K. Udupa, PhD, Luogang Wei, MS, Marcia Polansky, ScD, Lois J. Mannon, BS, RT and Dennis L. Kolson, MD, PhD

1 From the Departments of Radiology (Y.M., R.I.G., J.K.U., L.W., L.J.M.) and Neurology (D.L.K.), Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, Ground Fl, Founders, 3400 Spruce St, Philadelphia, PA 19104-4283; the Division of Biometrics, Hahnemann University, Philadelphia, Pa (M.P.); and the Department of Nuclear Medicine and Diagnostic Imaging, Kyoto University Hospital, Kyoto, Japan (Y.M.). Received June 1, 1998; revision requested July 22; final revision received January 8, 1999; accepted April 22. Supported in part by grants R01 NS29029 and M01-RR00040 from the National Institutes of Health, and grant RG2109B from the National Multiple Sclerosis Society. Address reprint requests to R.I.G. (e-mail: grossman@oasis .rad.upenn.edu).


    Abstract
 TOP
 Abstract
 Introduction
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 References
 
PURPOSE: To determine the relationship between T2 lesion volume and either disability measurements or change in T2 lesion volume over time in multiple sclerosis (MS).

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eighteen patients (age range, 26–53 years) with clinically proved relapsing-remitting MS were examined every 6 months for over 2 years. Three-millimeter-thick contiguous images of the whole brain were obtained. T2 lesion volume was calculated with a highly reproducible volumetric computer method.

RESULTS: A substantial annual increase in T2 lesion volume, with a median annual increase of approximately 8%, was demonstrated. However, there was no significant correlation between absolute T2 lesion volume and either the absolute expanded disability status scale (EDSS) grade (P = .32) or the absolute ambulation index (AI) (P = .20). In addition, no significant correlation between change in T2 lesion volume and change in EDSS grade (P = .42) or AI (P = .37) was found. There was no significant correlation between T2 lesion volume and duration of disease (P = .08).

CONCLUSION: There is no significant correlation between T2 lesion volume and standardized disability measurements despite a substantial increase in T2 lesion volume over time. Patients have an increase in total T2 lesion volume in the brain regardless of their clinical status or disability measurements. T2 lesion volumes as outcomes in therapeutic clinical trials on MS should be viewed as secondary outcomes rather than as surrogate markers of clinical responses.

Index terms: Brain, diseases, 10.871 • Brain, MR, 18.121416 • Magnetic resonance (MR), volume measurement, 10.121416 • Sclerosis, multiple, 10.871


    Introduction
 TOP
 Abstract
 Introduction
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 References
 
Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a disease commonly studied by using magnetic resonance (MR) imaging (1,2) in an attempt to analyze relationships between the intracranial lesions and the clinical status. However, such relationships have been difficult to establish, in part because of difficulty in defining biologically "active" lesions and in applying reproducible quantitative measures of this activity. In investigations (35), the behavior of individual MS lesions in the brain of patients has been analyzed by quantitating both the change in the size of the lesions and the absolute number of lesions over time. Although such quantitations have the potential to be useful, problems occur because large and punctate lesions are handled in a binary fashion. Recently developed techniques, through the implementation of computer technology at a variety of levels (1,2,6), may enable the accurate assessment of the volume of high-signal-intensity abnormalities on images obtained by using a long repetition time. The concept of "MS disease burden"—that is, the volume of presumed pathologic myelin-based lesions as determined on the basis of computer analysis of MR images—is a potentially powerful tool for understanding the natural history of MS and subsequently assessing the efficacy of specific therapeutic interventions.

In this article, we focus on the volumetric results of a prospective longitudinal MR imaging study of a cohort of patients with relapsing-remitting MS. Although there have been other studies in which volumetric methods were used, the present report represents a departure from previously published studies in two important ways. First, we developed a highly reproducible volumetric computer application. This automated program enables data to be compared without the problems of substantial interreader or intrareader variability (7). Interreader or intrareader differences in longitudinal studies are problematic when the variations in readings are equal to or greater than the variations in disease volume. Second, all of the data in our study were acquired with contiguous, 3-mm sections with a fast spin-echo pulse sequence. With this technique, one can attempt to minimize volume averaging with relatively thin sections while maximizing the magnetization transfer effect with the use of multiple 180° pulses in a fast spin-echo sequence. The longitudinal volumetric data in our cohort of untreated patients with relapsing-remitting MS were acquired for more than 24 months and then correlated with disease duration, study duration, and contemporaneously acquired disability measurements. The purpose of this study was to assess the relationship between T2 lesion volume and disability measurements and that between T2 lesion volume and change in T2 lesion volume over time in patients with MS.


    MATERIALS AND METHODS
 TOP
 Abstract
 Introduction
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 References
 
Our cohort consisted of 18 patients (14 women, four men; age range, 26–53 years; mean age, 40.8 years) who had definite MS (8) with a relapsing-remitting course and were recruited into this study. This study was part of a larger investigation of the MR imaging–based natural history of MS that was supported by the National Institutes of Health. The study was approved by our institutional review board, and written informed consent was obtained from all of the subjects.

The patients were examined by a neurologist (D.L.K.) who specializes in the care of patients who have MS. Relapsing-remitting disease was defined according to the following criterion: at least two relapses over the preceding 2 years, with relapse defined as a new neurologic deficit or exacerbation of a previous deficit that was confirmed at clinical examination and had developed over a period of 1–5 days in a previously stable patient and lasted at least 48 hours. Each patient underwent MR imaging and clinical evaluation in approximately 6-month intervals throughout the duration of this study (range, 2–4 years; median, 3 years). The duration of disease in these patients at the start of the study ranged from 4.3 months to 10.7 years, with a median duration of 3.2 years (average, 3.9 years). No patient had previously received, or ever received during the course of the study, interferon beta-1b or copaxone. Thus, our cohort had not received immunomodulating therapy either before or during the interval of our study.

To obtain the lesion volumes reported herein, MR imaging was performed with a 1.5-T imaging unit (GE Medical Systems, Milwaukee, Wis) by using the following fast spin-echo MR imaging protocol: repetition time, 2,500 msec; effective echo times, 18 and 90 msec; field of view, 22 cm; matrix size, 256 x 192; number of sections acquired, 50; section thickness (contiguous, interleaved), 3 mm; echo train length, eight; pixel size, 0.86 mm. Each study was then transferred electronically to our medical image processing laboratory where the total lesion volume was calculated.

Lesion volume calculations were performed by using an internal version of 3DVIEWNIX software on a Sun Sparc 20 workstation (Sun Microsystems, Mountain View, Calif) with four processors (256 Mbyte RAM). The calculations were based on a theory of object definition in images called "fuzzy connectedness," which has been previously described (9). The premise of this theory is that object information, such as that regarding lesions on T2-weighted images, is inherently "fuzzy," and local image properties within an object exhibit spatial contiguity (ie, connectedness), which also is a fuzzy phenomenon (9). In the fuzzy connectedness method, both intermediate-weighted and T2-weighted signal intensities that are assigned to each voxel in the acquired image are used as a vector in determining the different elements—that is, white matter, gray matter, cerebrospinal fluid, and potential lesions—each as a three-dimensional fuzzy connected entity. All of the possible connecting paths between all possible pairs of voxels in the volume image are considered in determining the four types of elements.

The theory and algorithms of fuzzy connectedness (9) and the use of the method in MS lesion detection on intermediate- and T2–weighted image pairs (7) are described in detail elsewhere. First, white matter, gray matter, and cerebrospinal fluid are detected. Then, in the holes between the union of the white matter and gray matter, potential lesions are detected. These potential lesions are also fuzzy connected objects, which are then presented one by one to the operator, who either accepts or rejects them as true lesions. This procedure is based on the notion that computers outperform humans in delineating objects and humans outperform computers in recognition tasks (7,1012). Because the software uses both intermediate- and T2-weighted images for the segmentation, lesions with increased T2 signal intensity that are adjacent to structures that contain cerebrospinal fluid, such as periventricular lesions or isolated arcuate fiber lesions, are not difficult for the software to recognize as lesions (13). The volume of the accepted lesions is then summed. This method has been validated in several studies (7,10) and in more than 300 data sets.

The coefficient of variation for intrareader and interreader variability based on the fuzzy connectedness method is 0.9% for total lesion volume (7). The time for user interaction per case is approximately 15 minutes and includes the time for defining white matter, gray matter, and cerebrospinal fluid and for accepting or rejecting lesions. The clinical parameters that were studied included the expanded disability status scale (EDSS) grade (15), ambulation index (AI) (16), and disease duration as measured from the date of the original diagnosis.

Data from the baseline studies obtained in patients were used to correlate T2 lesion volume with EDSS grade, AI, and duration of disease, and the Spearman rank test was used for analysis. To correlate change in T2 lesion volume with change in EDSS grade and change in AI, data from the baseline study and from the last study obtained in each patient, and the Spearman rank test were used. To correlate percent change in T2 lesion volume per year with EDSS grade, AI, duration of disease, and patient age, the Spearman rank test was used. To correlate EDSS grade and AI with duration of disease, the Spearman rank test was used. The Wilcoxon rank sum test was used to determine whether there was a significant difference in percent change in T2 lesion volume per year between the female and male patients. The Wilcoxon signed rank test was used to determine whether the percent change in T2 lesion volume on the last studies from the volume on the baseline studies was significantly different from zero.


    RESULTS
 TOP
 Abstract
 Introduction
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 References
 
The results of our study demonstrated a substantial and consistent annual increase in T2 lesion volume from the baseline value in patients with relapsing-remitting MS. However, these changes did not correlate significantly with disease duration, change in EDSS grade, change in AI, age, or sex.

For all patients, the median baseline T2 lesion volume was 5,470 mm3 (average volume ± SD, 8,210 mm3 ± 7,390). The median percent change in T2 lesion volume over the 1st year was 7.1% (average ± SD, 4.3% ± 37.2; minimum, -95.4%; maximum, 46.9%). The median percent change in the 2nd year versus that in the 1st year was 8.7% (average, 19.3% ± 45.7; minimum, -23.0%; maximum, 169.2%) (Figure). The median baseline EDSS grade of the patients was 2.0, which increased to 2.5 during the more than 2-year duration of our study.



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Figure 1. Graph shows T2 lesion volumes at baseline and in the 1st and 2nd years plotted on a patient-by-patient basis. Note the substantial variability in both the T2 lesion volume and the change in T2 lesion volume among patients.

 
Although we found that the change in T2 lesion volume from the baseline volume was significantly different from zero (P = .003), there was no significant correlation between T2 lesion volume and duration of disease (r = 0.42, P = .08), although the P value was close to having statistical significance. In addition, we found no significant correlation between duration of disease and percent change in T2 lesion volume per year (r = -0.15, P = .54).

Although median T2 lesion volumes increased 7%–8% per year, we found no significant correlation between T2 lesion volume and either EDSS grade (r = 0.25, P = .32) or AI (r = 0.32, P = .20), between change in T2 lesion volume and either change in EDSS grade (r = 0.20, P = .42) or change in AI (r = 0.22, P = .37), or between percent change in T2 lesion volume per year and either EDSS grade (r = 0.0021, P = .99) or AI (r = 0.31, P = .17). A significant correlation between EDSS grade and duration of disease (r = 0.49; P = .04) was noted, but no statistically significant correlation was found between AI and duration of disease (r = 0.33; P = .17). Finally, there was no correlation between patient age or sex and percent change in T2 lesion volume per year (r = -0.21; P = .40 and .66, respectively).


    DISCUSSION
 TOP
 Abstract
 Introduction
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 References
 
The results of our study indicate that although the volume of lesions on T2-weighted images increases consistently and substantially in patients with relapsing-remitting MS who are followed up for several years, these changes are not predictive of clinical course. The results were generated by using a highly reproducible computerized volumetric program that has validated intrareader and interreader variability, with a coefficient of variation of less than 1.0%; thus, it is, to our knowledge, the most reliable means of quantitating T2 lesion volume in the brain reported to date (7). Conclusions about the natural history of MS, including response to drug treatments, are often based on the volumes of lesions on T2-weighted images as a primary or secondary end point and, by inference, a predictor of clinical outcome. To begin to better understand the evolution of MS lesions on T2-weighted images, we used our volumetric program for a cohort of longitudinally tracked patients with relapsing-remitting MS who had not received interferon beta or copaxone treatment.

Our volumetric program is unique in that the delineation of lesions is fully automated; intrareader and interreader variabilities arise from the recognition task only and not from the process of delineation. This is quite different from the other volumetric computer techniques that are widely used in North America and Europe, such as manual tracing (1726) and thresholding techniques in which the threshold is manually determined (2531). Our volumetric method is based on the notion that computer algorithms are superior to human analysis in the delineation of objects and human analysis is superior to computer algorithms in most recognition tasks (7,1012). Human delineation of ill-defined objects such as MS lesions can be especially variable. Most of the computer-detected false lesion sites in our study were artifacts and/or the choroid plexus, and it is easy to distinguish these from true lesions.

The pulse sequence used in this study also was different from that in other reported series. We used a thin-section, fast spin-echo pulse sequence rather than a conventional spin-echo technique. Compared with conventional spin-echo sequences, fast spin-echo sequences have been reported to have equivalent sensitivity in the detection of MS lesions while dramatically reducing the acquisition time (3133). We chose this technique to minimize volume averaging of MS lesions. Our section thickness was 3 mm, and the sections were contiguous. This section thickness is different from that in other series, in which the section thicknesses ranged from 5 mm to 1 cm (18,19,26,27,31,3440).

An issue in this study, and perhaps in other studies of the ongoing natural history of MS, was the confounding problem of patients treated with drugs, including interferon beta. Our initial patient cohort was considerably larger than that reported herein. However, in this particular study, we confined our analysis to those patients with relapsing-remitting MS who had not received any therapy that has been reported to have an effect on T2 lesion volume.

The data presented indicate a lack of correlation between T2 lesion volume and either EDSS grade or AI and are consistent with those in some reports (3,4,18,20,4145) but in contrast to those in others (22,36). There are several explanations for such inconsistencies. First, the EDSS grade and AI are motor-weighted measures with substantial intrareader and interreader variability (4648), and they may be heavily influenced by spinal cord lesions, which were excluded in this study. Second, although T2 lesion volume is a marker of disease burden, it is not specific to different lesion types. For example, inflammation, demyelination, and the combinations of complex pathologic processes that occur in MS have a similar appearance on T2-weighted images. Yet, it is reasonable to conclude that not all of these processes have the same effect on neurologic function. One could expect to find the same high-signal-intensity T2 lesion in the internal capsule producing quite different neurologic symptoms, depending on the pathologic substrate. A related issue was the occurrence of lesions in "silent" regions of the brain (42,49). Lesions in these locations may not be identifiable with the standard clinical measurements that were used in our study, but they may produce disability that can be assessed by using more sophisticated examinations such as neuropsychologic testing (14,5054).

Third, MR imaging is unable to demonstrate a burden of disease below its contrast and/or spatial resolution (MR occult lesions). This level of disease has been demonstrated by using a variety of techniques, including magnetization transfer imaging (55,56) and MR spectroscopy (57). Our volumetric program was designed to measure only the visible components of the disease burden. However, MR imaging–occult lesions have been deemed by some (2,5557) to represent a very important component of disease burden. These points suggest that inclusion of MR imaging–occult lesions in measurements of total disease burden may be necessary to assess the relationship between EDSS grade and disease burden.

The results of MR imaging in our study clearly demonstrated an annual median volumetric change in T2 lesion volume of about 8% in patients with relapsing-remitting MS who were not taking immunomodulating medications. With this median annual rate, one could expect a 9-year doubling time in T2 lesion volume (ln2/ln1.08). One implication of this rate would be that patients who present with a high T2 lesion volume might be expected to develop a greater neurologic disability during a fixed observation period than that in patients who present with lower T2 lesion volumes. However, the results of our study suggested that there was no significant correlation between T2 lesion volume and duration of disease, whereas there was a substantial increase in T2 lesion volume over time. These findings suggest that other factors (eg, MR imaging–occult lesions, precise lesion histopathologic features, and spinal cord lesions) may have a major role in the disability in relapsing-remitting MS. In our study, the EDSS grade correlated significantly with the duration of disease, but the AI did not. This may be because the AI reflects more limited aspects of disabilities than does the EDSS grade (58).

Although we found a consistent annual median increase in T2 lesion volume, we found substantial variability in both the T2 lesion volume among patients and the percent change in T2 lesion volume among all patients (Figure). In addition, the percent change in T2 lesion volume had no significant correlation with physical disability, duration of disease, age, or sex, which suggests that the generation of T2 lesion disease is independent of these factors.

The results of our study differ slightly from those reported by Paty and Li (22), in which the median change in T2 lesion volume in the placebo group was 10.9% during the 1st year and 16.5% during the 2nd year. The reason for the difference in change in total disease burden between their study and ours is uncertain, but it may relate to differences in technique. Although we used our automated algorithm and 3-mm brain section images, Paty and Li (22) used several different MR imaging machines with varied magnetic field strengths and 10-mm-thick sections, and the lesion volume was calculated by using a manual tracing method (3,19,22). It is important, however, that the trend of increasing T2 lesion volumes over time in patients with relapsing-remitting MS was confirmed in both studies.

In summary, we quantitated the lesion volumes demonstrated on T2-weighted MR images of the brain in patients with a natural course of MS by using a highly reproducible computer method. We found a substantial increase over time in T2 lesion volume in relapsing-remitting MS, and substantial variety and variability in T2 lesion volumes in individual patients and among different patients with a similar clinical status. Despite the use of a highly reproducible quantitative imaging technique, such variability in intracranial T2 lesion volume and clinical status among patients urges caution in the use of T2 lesion volumetric measures as primary or surrogate outcomes in therapeutic trials of MS management. The limitation of this study may be the insensitivity of the standard clinical examinations. We did not correlate the neuropsychologic test results with the T2 lesion volumes; however, such tests of diffuse brain function could potentially reveal a correlation with T2 lesion volume.


    Footnotes
 
Abbreviations: AI = ambulation index EDSS = expanded disability status scale MS = multiple sclerosis

Author contributions: Guarantors of integrity of entire study, R.I.G., Y.M.; study concepts and design, R.I.G.; definition of intellectual content, R.I.G.; literature research, Y.M.; clinical studies, D.L.K.; data acquisition, L.J.M.; data analysis, Y.M., J.K.U., L.W.; statistical analysis, M.P.; manuscript preparation, Y.M.; manuscript editing, L.J.M.; manuscript review, all authors.


    References
 TOP
 Abstract
 Introduction
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 References
 

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