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(Radiology. 2000;215:535-542.)
© RSNA, 2000


Thoracic Imaging

Subsequent Pulmonary Embolism: Risk after a Negative Helical CT Pulmonary Angiogram- Prospective Comparison with Scintigraphy1

Lawrence R. Goodman, MD, FACR, Randolph J. Lipchik, MD, Ronald S. Kuzo, MD, Yu Liu, MD, Timothy L. McAuliffe, PhD and Daniel J. O'Brien, BA

1 From the Departments of Radiology (L.R.G., R.S.K., Y.L., D.J.O.) and Medicine, Division of Pulmonary Medicine and Critical Care Medicine (L.R.G., R.J.L.), and the Division of Biostatistics (T.L.M.), Medical College of Wisconsin, 9200 W Wisconsin Ave, Milwaukee, WI 53226-3596. Received July 23, 1999; revision requested September 29; revision received November 3; accepted November 15. Supported in part by a research grant from GE Medical Systems, Milwaukee. Address correspondence to L.R.G. (e-mail: lgoodman@mcw.edu).


    Abstract
 TOP
 Abstract
 Introduction
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 References
 
PURPOSE: To determine whether a helical computed tomographic (CT) scan that is negative for pulmonary embolism (PE) is a sufficiently reliable criterion to safely withhold anticoagulation therapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with negative helical CT scans were prospectively compared with patients with negative or low-probability scintigrams. In a 460-bed university hospital and clinic, 1,015 adult patients underwent either scintigraphy or helical CT for possible PE for 25 months. Five hundred forty-eight patients who had negative images and were not receiving anticoagulation therapy were prospectively followed up for 3 months for clinical, new imaging, death certificate, or autopsy evidence of subsequent PE. Ninety-seven patients were lost to follow-up.

RESULTS: Subsequent PE was found in two (1.0%) of 198 patients with negative CT scans, none of 188 patients with negative ventilation-perfusion (V-P) scans, and five (3.1%) of 162 patients with low-probability V-P scans (not statistically significant). Patients in the helical CT group were hospitalized more often, had more severe disease, had more substantial PE risk factors, and had a higher death rate. No deaths were attributed to PE in either group.

CONCLUSION: The frequency of clinical diagnoses of PE after a negative CT scan was low and similar to that after a negative or low-probability V-P scan. Helical CT is a reliable imaging tool for excluding clinically important PE.

Index terms: Computed tomography (CT), comparative studies, 60.12112, 60.12115, 60.12116, 944.12912, 944.12915, 944.12916 • Computed tomography (CT), helical, 60.12115, 944.12915 • Embolism, pulmonary, 60.7212, 60.723, 60.724, 944.751, 944.77 • Lung, perfusion, 60.12171 • Lung, ventilation, 60.12176 • Pulmonary arteries, CT, 944.12912, 944.12915, 944.12916


    Introduction
 TOP
 Abstract
 Introduction
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 References
 
Helical computed tomographic (CT) pulmonary angiography (hereinafter referred to as helical CT) has become an important imaging tool for the detection of pulmonary embolism (PE). Helical and/or electron-beam CT is readily available, has good sensitivity (85%–90%) and specificity (>90%), enables the imaging of emboli directly, and depicts other lesions that may be responsible for the patient's symptoms (14). Helical CT is considered by many to be an advancement over diagnostic algorithms that use ventilation-perfusion (V-P) scanning, which is nondiagnostic (ie, neither normal nor high-probability) in well over 50% of cases (1,5).

Although most clinicians readily accept a helical CT–based diagnosis of PE, many are hesitant to accept a negative helical CT scan as a definitive indication to exclude PE. Especially troubling is the inability of helical CT to reliably depict emboli when they are small or limited to only the subsegmental vessels. Although recent advances in helical CT equipment, such as multisection detectors, enable better visualization of the subsegmental vessels, these small vessels remain difficult to evaluate. If emboli in these small vessels are frequent or harmful, helical CT has a limited role. Conversely, if these small emboli are infrequent or of limited clinical consequence, then helical CT has a major role. The results of large series in which patients suspected of having PE were studied have demonstrated that isolated subsegmental clots are relatively uncommon, occurring in 4%–6% of cases (6,7), whereas limited clinical series with selected patients have shown that subsegmental clots are more frequent (3,8,9). In the Prospective Investigation of Pulmonary Embolism Diagnosis (PIOPED) study, 17% of patients with low-probability scintigrams had clots limited to the subsegmental vessels at angiography (5).

Furthermore, there is controversy regarding the importance of small, nontreated clots. Gurney (10) argued that small emboli are common and a healthy lung acts as a filter to protect the systemic circulation. In the PIOPED study, 20 patients who had small clots that were missed at the initial pulmonary angiogram reading and had not received anticoagulation therapy were retrospectively identified. Two (10%) patients had subsequent PEs, one of which led to death (11). Others fear that small emboli may be lethal in patients with limited cardiopulmonary reserve and that they may be the initial warning that larger thrombi lurk in the lower extremity veins (1,12,13).

Because of these concerns, many have expressed the need for clinical outcome studies to examine patients with negative helical CT scans to determine the rate of subsequently discovered PE (1217). We prospectively followed up patients with negative helical CT scans for 3 months to determine the rate of occurrence of subsequent PE and the overall clinical outcome and compared the results with those in a group of control patients with negative or low-probability scintigrams. The negative predictive values were calculated.


    MATERIALS AND METHODS
 TOP
 Abstract
 Introduction
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 References
 
The study was performed in a 460-bed teaching hospital. We attempted to follow a protocol similar to that of clinical practice at our hospital as much as possible. In 1995, a two-armed approach for the detection of venous thromboembolism was suggested to our clinical colleagues: The first approach was a traditional work-up, which started with the acquisition of a perfusion scan followed by a ventilation scan if the perfusion scan was abnormal. A high-probability scan was assumed to indicate the presence of PE, and a normal scan, the absence of PE. In the remainder of the patients, the referring clinician could choose to terminate the imaging work-up or proceed to other imaging studies—that is, pulmonary angiography, helical CT, or color Doppler and venous compression ultrasonography [US]) (1).

In the second approach, helical CT was substituted for scintigraphy. If the helical CT scan was negative, then Doppler US was suggested but not mandatory. In this clinical study, clinicians were free to order additional examinations—that is, pulmonary angiography and/or V-P scintigraphy—if they deemed it appropriate.

The first approach (ie, scintigraphy) was suggested for patients with normal or near-normal chest radiographs, and the second approach (ie, helical CT) was suggested for patients with abnormal chest radiographs because the likelihood of a definitive interpretation (ie, normal or high-probability scintigram) was low in such cases (18). Other than these broad policy suggestions, no attempt was made to influence the clinician's decision.

The study population consisted of patients without helical CT evidence of PE and patients with either a normal or a low-probability V-P scan. Patients were excluded if they had received anticoagulation therapy for any reason (eg, prior deep venous thrombosis, PE, or cardiac disease), had an inferior vena cava filter, or had had documented PE in the previous 3 months. If the patient had within 24 hours undergone other imaging (ie, US or angiography) that depicted PE, they were excluded because the diagnosis was part of their initial work-up.

Patients were followed up at 1 and 3 months by a team consisting of a pulmonologist (R.J.L.), research physician (Y.L.), and research coordinator (D.J.O.). Imaging was not systematically performed to evaluate for possible subsequent venous thromboembolism. All hospital, clinic, and emergency department charts were reviewed for signs and symptoms of subsequent PE or deep venous thrombosis, objective (ie, imaging- or autopsy-based) evidence of subsequent PE or deep venous thrombosis, or a clinical diagnosis of subsequent PE or deep venous thrombosis that resulted in treatment. In addition, for all study patients, either the patient, the patient's family, or the referring physician was interviewed by phone at 1 and 3 months. Our hospital's autopsy records and the death certificates from our two local counties also were examined. Patients lost to follow-up during the 3 months were dropped from the study. The charts and supporting data for every patient believed to have had a subsequent PE and for every patient who died were thoroughly reviewed by the pulmonologist. In addition to the usual demographic data, we recorded the patient's referral location—that is, emergency department, outpatient clinic, inpatient clinic, or intensive care unit—at the time of the index imaging study and the presence or absence of nine risk factors frequently associated with venous thromboembolism (Table 1) (19,20).


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TABLE 1. Risk Factors Associated with Venous Thromboembolism at Time of V-P or CT Scanning
 
Helical CT
The CT images were obtained with a helical scanner (HCTi; GE Medical Systems, Milwaukee, Wis) by using a previously described protocol (21). Briefly, a time-attenuation curve was generated over the main pulmonary artery by using 20 mL of 30% nonionic contrast material (iohexol [Omnipaque 300]; Nycomed-Amersham, Princeton, NJ). Scanning commenced at the time of peak enhancement plus 5 seconds. Diagnostic scanning started from the higher hemidiaphragm in a cephalad direction for approximately 12 cm at 3 mm per section with a pitch of 1.7:1.0. Scanning required 0.8 or 1.0 second per rotation. The scanning was performed in a single breath hold whenever possible or during shallow breathing. The scans were reconstructed at 1.5-mm intervals and read on a workstation by one of two experienced radiologists (L.R.G., R.S.K.). Each vessel was scored for the presence or absence of clot, but the final determinations (ie, "PE" or "PE negative") were made per patient. A clot was present if contrast material outlined a central intraluminal filling defect or if a vessel was totally occluded by low-attenuating material.

V-P Scintigraphy
Perfusion scanning.—The lung perfusion images were obtained in eight projections—that is, anterior and posterior, left anterior and posterior oblique, right anterior and posterior oblique, and both lateral views—after the intravenous injection of 3.0 mCi (111 GBq) of technetium 99m-macroaggregated albumin. A large field-of-view gamma camera (Starcam; GE Medical Systems) was used with a low-energy all-purpose collimator and 20% window setting at 140 keV. Each view was acquired for 500K by using a matrix of 256.

Aerosol study.—If perfusion abnormalities were seen, then an aerosol ventilation study was performed. Forty mCi (1,480 GBq) of 99mTc-pyrophosphate in a total volume of 4 mL was administered by means of inhalation with an aerosol delivery unit. The camera detector was positioned over the suspicious area seen on the perfusion image. After acquiring a 2-minute preaerosol static image and without moving the patient, the dynamic inhalation images were obtained with an oxygen flow setting of 10–13 L/h. The dynamic inhalation data were acquired for 30 seconds per image for 16 frames by using a 128 matrix, and then a 2-minute, static postaerosol image was obtained. Static pre- and postaerosol images were acquired by using a matrix of 256. An aerosol image was obtained after subtracting both images. The images were interpreted by one of three experienced nuclear medicine specialists by using modified PIOPED criteria (22).

Lower Extremity Venous US Technique
The lower extremity venous studies included venous compression US and color Doppler US, both with a 5- or 7-MHz transducer. The studies were performed from the common femoral vein to the popliteal vein. Deep venous thrombosis was diagnosed if the vascular lumen was not compressible, there was diminished venous flow, or there was absence of respiratory periodicity.

Pulmonary Angiographic Technique
Digital subtraction angiograms were obtained during injection of 40–50 mL of nonionic contrast material (iohexol; [Omnipaque 350]; Nycomed-Amersham) at 20–25 mL/sec through a 7-F, multi–side- hole catheter in the main pulmonary artery. Additional subselective studies were obtained in oblique projections when indicated. The images were obtained with an LCA unit (GE Medical Systems) by using a 1,024 x 1,024 matrix and a 16-cm field of view. Acute PE was diagnosed if a partially occluding intravascular filling defect was observed or a vessel ended abruptly in a meniscus.

Statistical Analyses
The univariate association between imaging modality and 3-month subsequent diagnosis of PE and overall survival status was tested by using {chi}2 analysis. Additional analyses by each risk factor and patient location were performed. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to examine the comparability of study groups with respect to age. Stepwise logistic regression analysis was used to allow multivariate adjustment for age, referral location, sex, and the nine risk factors in testing for differences in subsequent PE and 3-month survival between patients in the helical CT group and those in the V-P scintigraphy group. To avoid the potential effect of confounding data as a result of the different risk characteristic patterns of the imaging modality groups, multivariate logistic regression was used to test for an association between imaging modality and death or subsequent diagnosis of PE within 90 days. A stepwise logistic regression analysis approach was used to model the association between death or subsequent diagnosis of PE within 90 days and imaging modality while adjusting for age, sex, referral location, and the nine risk characteristics.


    RESULTS
 TOP
 Abstract
 Introduction
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 References
 
During a 25-month period, 1,015 patients underwent technically adequate imaging for possible PE; 393 (38.7%) underwent helical CT, and 622 (61.3%) underwent scintigraphy. Helical CT was negative in 285 (72.5%) of 393 patients, and V-P scintigraphy was negative or low probability in 527 (84.7%) of 622 patients (P < .01). In the helical CT–negative group, Doppler US was performed in 119 (41.8%) and pulmonary angiography was performed in one (0.4%) of 285 patients. In the negative or low-probability scintigram group, US was performed in 115 (21.8%) and pulmonary angiography was performed in five (0.9%) of 527 patients. The data in four patients with low-probability V-P scans who were found to have venous thromboembolism within 24 hours by using other imaging examinations were not included in subsequent calculations.

In the helical CT–negative group of 285 patients, 198 (69.5%) completed 3-month follow-up, whereas 24 (8.4%) were lost to follow-up and 63 (22.1%) received anticoagulation therapy (Table 2). In the V-P scintigraphy–negative group of 527 patients, 350 (66.4%) completed 3-month follow-up—188 patients had normal scans and 162 had low-probability scans—whereas 73 (13.8%) were lost to follow-up and 104 (19.7%) received anticoagulation therapy. Patients in the V-P group were lost to follow-up almost twice as often as patients in the helical CT group (13.8% vs 8.4%; P = .001).


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TABLE 2. Summary of Patients with Negative Scans Only
 
The final study group consisted of 548 patients (49% men) with a mean age of 51.4 years ± 18.8 (Table 3). In the study group, patients in the helical CT group were more likely to be referred from the hospital (ie, intensive care unit or inpatient facility) than were patients in the V-P group (64.1% vs 42.5%; P = .01). Patients in the helical CT group were twice as likely to be referred from the intensive care unit as patients in the V-P scintigraphy group (24.2% vs 11.1%; P = .001). Patients referred from the emergency department were three times more likely to undergo V-P scintigraphy (40.3% vs 12.6%; P = .001), 10–15 years younger, and more likely to be lost to follow-up than the patients referred from other areas (24% vs 12%; P = .01) (Tables 3 and 4). Sixty-eight percent of the patients in the helical CT group and 49% of the patients in the V-P group had one or more risk factors (not significant). The patients in the helical CT group had a mean of 1.01 risk factors ± 0.91; the patients in the V-P group had a mean of 0.88 risk factors ± 0.89 (not significant). The helical CT group patients had a malignancy and/or general anesthesia 1.5 times more often than the V-P scintigraphy group patients, and the V-P group patients were more likely to be pregnant or postpartum (Table 3).


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TABLE 3. Risk Factors for Study Patients and Patients Lost to Follow-up
 

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TABLE 4. Mean Age (±SD) by Referral Location and Imaging
 
The patients in the scintigraphy group who were lost to follow-up had one-half to one-third the number of risk factors as the patients in the other groups (CT, CT lost to follow-up, and V-P) (P = .001). There were no substantial differences in any demographic feature between the patients in the helical CT study group and the group of patients who underwent helical CT and were lost to follow-up. In the lost-to-follow-up scintigraphy group, the patients were more likely to have been referred from the emergency department (Table 3). These differences in distribution were not unexpected, because the patients with underlying cardiopulmonary disease and/or abnormal chest radiographs were more likely to be hospitalized or in an intensive care unit setting and therefore more likely to have undergone helical CT (Table 3).

Subsequent PE occurred in two (1.0%) of 198 patients who underwent helical CT and in five of 350 (1.4%) patients who underwent scintigraphy (not significant, Fisher exact test). None of the patients with a normal V-P scan had subsequent PE, and five (3.1%) of the 162 patients with a low-probability V-P scan had subsequent PE (not significant, Fisher exact test). The negative predictive values for helical CT, normal V-P scintigraphy, and low-probability V-P scintigraphy were 99%, 100%, and 97%, respectively. The mean time to diagnosis of subsequent PE was 21.1 days (range, 1.5–74.0 days). Five of the seven patients had had a negative lower extremity Doppler US scan within 48 hours after the initial lung imaging. The subsequent diagnosis of PE in the seven patients was made on the basis of a positive helical CT scan in four patients, a positive angiogram in one patient, a high-probability V-P scan in one patient, and an autopsy diagnosis of an organized clot in one patient (Table 5).


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TABLE 5. Subsequent Thromboembolism after Negative Imaging Result
 
During the follow-up period, the overall death rate was 9.8% (Table 6). There were significantly more deaths in the helical CT group—in 34 (17.2%) of 198 patients—than in the V-P scintigraphy group—in 20 (5.7%) of 350 patients (P = .001). Death occurred at approximately the same time in patients in both the helical CT and V-P scintigraphy groups (16.2 days ± 18.1 vs 18.4 days ± 19.6; P nonsignificant). When the patients' referral locations were used as indexes of disease severity, the deaths in the helical CT and scintigraphy groups were similar, except for those in the inpatients, in whom there were significantly more deaths in the helical CT group (16.5% vs 3.7%; P = .001). Only 1.2% of patients referred from the emergency department died versus 13.5% of patients referred from the other locations (P = .001).


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TABLE 6. Deaths by Referral Location and Imaging Procedure
 
In the 548 patients with negative helical CT and V-P scans, there were no deaths attributed to PE according to clinical, imaging, or autopsy information. Autopsy was performed in 12 patients—seven from the helical CT group and five from the V-P scintigraphy group—1–59 days after imaging (mean, 11 days ± 16). No patient had acute PE. Autopsy of one patient, who had a history of drug abuse, cirrhosis, and chronic pulmonary hypertension, showed plexiform angiopathy and small organized thromboemboli but no acute PE. This patient had had a negative helical CT scan 9 days earlier. He was considered to have had a subsequent PE, but it was not considered to be the cause of death in our tabulations. Death certificates were found in 15 patients—eight from the helical CT group and seven from the V-P scintigraphy group—who were otherwise lost to follow-up. On none of these death certificates was PE named as the cause of death.

To adjust for differences in potential risk characteristics between imaging modality groups, multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to model the relationships between death within 90 days and imaging modality, age, sex, referral location, and the nine risk characteristics. The four referral locations, CT imaging type, male sex, and the nine risk characteristics were included as binary variables. Patient age was dichotomized into younger than 67 years and older than 67 years. Because of colinearity among the covariates, stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop a best-fitting model for the occurrence of death within 90 days. The best-fitting stepwise logistic regression model included intensive care unit referral location, age, CT imaging type, and the two risk factors of immobilization and malignancy (goodness-of-fit test, P = .87).

The logistic regression coefficient, significance, and odds ratio of each factor in the final model are listed in Table 7. Each variable in the model represents a significant independent risk for death within 90 days after adjusting for the remaining factors. The patients referred from the intensive care unit had almost six times the odds of dying within the first 90 days as the other patients (odds ratio, 5.93; P = .001). The patients in the CT imaging group had more than twice the odds of dying within 90 days as those in the V-P scintigraphy group (odds ratio, 2.54; P = .004). Patient age older than 67 years (odds ratio, 2.12; P = .024), immobilization for more than 7 days (odds ratio, 3.52; P = .002), and malignancy (odds ratio, 2.39; P = .012) were the remaining statistically significant independent risk factors for dying within 90 days. The other referral locations (inpatient and outpatient facilities and emergency department) and the remaining seven characteristics were not significant independent predictors after controlling for the variables in the final model. Subsequent PE was diagnosed in too few patients to allow meaningful multivariate analysis.


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TABLE 7. Stepwise Logistic Regression Analysis to Predict Death
 

    DISCUSSION
 TOP
 Abstract
 Introduction
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 References
 
In our study, the prevalence of clinically apparent PE after a negative helical CT scan was low (1.0%) and minimally different from that after a normal V-P scan (0%). The prevalence of PE after a negative helical CT scan was slightly but not significantly lower than that after a low-probability V-P scan (3.1%), which is often considered by clinicians to be a negative study. Thus, a negative helical CT scan can provide reliable information to indicate that anticoagulation therapy can be withheld safely.

In our study, the 1.0% prevalence of subsequent PE after a negative helical CT scan was very similar to that in studies of subsequent thromboembolism after negative pulmonary angiographic, scintigraphic, helical CT, and lower extremity imaging results, and/or a combination of these. A review of five published series of negative pulmonary angiograms revealed subsequent PE in 25 of 1,095 (2.3%) patients during a 3–12 month follow-up period (5,2326). The results of two studies (4,27) involving 159 patients with low-probability scintigrams who did not receive anticoagulation therapy showed no evidence of further emboli. Mayo et al (4) followed up 44 patients with negative helical CT scans for 3 months, and none of these patients had recurrence, whereas Ferretti et al (27) followed up 112 patients for 3 months and found three (2.7%) subsequent PEs and three (2.7%) subsequent deep venous thrombi. Hull et al (26) examined patients with non–high-probability V-P scans who underwent serial deep venous studies and reported a 2.7% (10 of 371) prevalence of subsequent venous thromboembolism. van Beek et al (28) followed up patients who had either negative scintigrams or negative angiograms for 6 months and observed thromboembolism in 12 (4.9%) of 243 patients.

The 0%–5% subsequent occurrence of venous thromboembolism in these studies must be compared with the mortality and morbidity associated with PE, the imaging complications, and the anticoagulation therapy risks. The risk of death from nontreated PE is probably in the 10%–30% range, although this is difficult to ascertain because many individuals with PE either are asymptomatic or do not receive a diagnosis (29,30). Autopsy results have shown that approximately 5% of patients die as a result of nondiagnosed PE and that PE contributes to death in another 10% of cases (30,31). Carson et al (29), in a study of 375 patients with PE who had received anticoagulation therapy, found that 33 (8.8%) of these patients had clinically apparent recurrent PE and 10 (2.7%) died as a result of subsequent PE within a year. The hospital mortality rate was 9.5%, and the death rate from all causes at 1 year was 24.0%. Hirsh (34) followed up 1,100 patients who had received anticoagulation therapy and found subsequent PE in 54 (4.9%), and 79 (7.2%) patients died from all causes.

Major complications of pulmonary angiography occur in approximately 1% of patients (32,33).

Anticoagulation is not without complications. Landefeld and Beyth (35) reviewed the complications following warfarin therapy in 937 patients. Four (0.4%) had fatal hemorrhage, and 60 (6.0%) had major nonfatal hemorrhage. They also examined 3,931 patients who received heparin therapy and found 37 (0.9%) deaths and 130 (3.0%) major bleeding complications.

Our decision to follow up patients for 3 months rather than a year was based on reports that the majority of subsequent thromboemboli occur within the first few weeks after a negative imaging study for PE or after treatment for PE. Carson et al (29) found that 98% of PE recurrences and 80% of PE-related deaths in treated patients occurred within a week. Hirsh (34) reported that 60% of PE recurrences in treated patients occurred within 2 weeks. Similar results have been reported after negative angiograms and negative helical CT scans (24,25,27). We found the mean time to subsequent PE to be approximately 21 days. If a patient develops signs of acute venous thromboembolism more than 3 months after a negative diagnostic examination, it is considerably more likely that this is a new occurrence in a patient who remained at high risk for venous thromboembolism rather than a venous thromboembolism that was missed at initial imaging.

The majority of follow-up studies in the literature have focused on clinical assessment rather than on routine repeated imaging. It is well recognized that the clinical diagnosis of thromboembolism, whether primary or recurrent, is extremely difficult, especially in hospitalized patients (30,31). Without a complete set of repeated images of the lungs and legs, one cannot be sure that PE or deep venous thrombosis did not occur, recur, or persist. With these limitations, one can only assess the clinical outcomes and the prognostic consequences of withholding treatment.

Diagnostic accuracy was not assessed in this study. It is possible, even probable, that some of our patients had or died as a result of unrecognized thromboembolism despite our thorough case review. The 17.2% death rate in the patients who had undergone helical CT was high, but it reflected a population of patients who had more severe disease, were older, and had a higher frequency of malignancy and/or immobility. The overall death rate, however, was similar to that after negative scintigraphic or pulmonary angiographic examinations in other published studies (23,25,3638). The death rate in the helical CT group was almost identical to a crude 3-month death rate of 17.4% that was reported in 2,454 patients treated for PE (39).

Finally, 264 (32.5%) of the 812 patients with negative images were excluded because they received anticoagulation therapy (n = 167) or did not complete follow-up (n = 97). Most of the patients who received anticoagulation therapy were treated for other problems, such as ischemic or valvular heart disease, and had received anticoagulation therapy before the PE work-up. Undoubtedly, some patients received anticoagulation therapy because of a concern about thromboembolism, despite a negative imaging examination. However, the percentages of patients who received anticoagulation therapy in the V-P scintigraphy and helical CT groups were similar (19.7% vs 22.1%). There was no significant difference between the helical CT study group and the helical CT group lost to follow-up with respect to any of the 15 factors listed in Table 3. Among the patients who underwent V-P scintigraphy, the largest group lost to follow-up was that of patients referred from the emergency department. These patients were younger and had fewer risk factors; therefore, it is unlikely that many of these patients with negative images had missed PE or undiscovered subsequent emboli.

We continue to believe that in patients with multiple risk factors or in those with limited cardiopulmonary reserve, a small embolus may be a harbinger of larger emboli to come or physiologically important (1); further imaging may be warranted. Lower extremity Doppler US provides assurance that no substantial clots reside in the femoropopliteal system. Pulmonary angiography is used to reexamine the pulmonary arteries and perhaps detect small overlooked PE.

Three recent advances should improve the results of helical CT in the assessment of thromboembolic disease:

1. Technical improvements. The current generation of helical CT scanners now provides thinner (2–3-mm) sections, shorter scanning times (0.75–8.00 seconds), and higher pitch (1.7/1.0). Multisection detectors provide even thinner (1.25-mm) sections while maintaining or decreasing the scanning time. Remy-Jardin et al (40) have emphasized that reducing the helical CT section thickness and increasing the scanning speed markedly improve the visibility of the smaller arteries.

2. Workstation viewing. Reading images on a workstation provides cine viewing of the pulmonary arteries; this enhances PE detection and reader certainty.

3. CT venography. Transverse CT scanning of the pelvic and leg veins after helical CT of the chest can demonstrate deep venous thrombosis without the need for additional intravenous contrast material. Loud et al (41) found that in 71 patients, 19 of whom had deep venous thrombosis, both the sensitivity and specificity were 100% compared with those at US. Shah et al (42) recently observed 94% (49 of 52) agreement between CT venography and venous US. If these results are validated, the pulmonary arteries, inferior vena cava, and iliac, femoral, and popliteal veins can be assessed in a single session in the helical CT suite.

In conclusion, in our study, helical CT had a negative clinical predictive value of 0.99, similar to the clinical predictive value of a negative scintigram (1.0) and a low-probability scintigram (0.97). Garg et al (43) recently reported similar negative predictive values in patients with negative helical CT scans. In the 70%–75% of patients suspected of having PE who do not have thromboembolic disease, helical CT frequently provides an alternative explanation for their cardiopulmonary symptoms (4,42,43). It can also help to diagnose or exclude PE in the presence of other lung diseases, such as pneumonia or atelectasis.


    Acknowledgments
 
The authors thank Sylvia Bartz for administrative and secretarial support.


    Footnotes
 
See also the editorial by Woodard (pp 325–326 ) in this issue.

Abbreviations: PE = pulmonary embolism PIOPED = Prospective Investigation of Pulmonary Embolism Diagnosis V-P = ventilation-perfusion

Author contributions: Guarantors of integrity of entire study, L.R.G., R.J.L.; study concepts, L.R.G., R.J.L., R.S.K.; study design, L.R.G., R.J.L., R.S.K., T.L.M.; definition of intellectual content, L.R.G., R.J.L., R.S.K.; literature research, L.R.G.; clinical studies, L.R.G., R.J.L., Y.L., D.J.O.; data acquisition, R.J.L., R.S.K., Y.L., D.J.O.; data analysis, L.R.G., R.S.K., T.L.M.; statistical analysis, T.L.M.; manuscript preparation, L.R.G., R.J.L.; manuscript editing, L.R.G., R.J.L., R.S.K.; manuscript review, all authors.


    References
 TOP
 Abstract
 Introduction
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 References
 

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