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Published online before print October 24, 2002, 10.1148/radiol.2253011384
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(Radiology 2002;225:655-662.)
© RSNA, 2002


Thoracic Imaging

Bronchiolitis Obliterans Syndrome in Lung Transplant Recipients: Use of Spirometrically Gated CT1

Friedrich D. Knollmann, MD, Ralf Ewert, MD, Tarja Wündrich, MA, Roland Hetzer, MD, PhD and Roland Felix, MD, PhD

1 From the Department of Radiology, Charité, Campus Virchow-Klinikum, Humboldt-University, Augustenburger Platz 1, 13353 Berlin, Germany (F.D.K., T.W., R.F.); and Department of Cardiothoracic and Vascular Surgery, German Heart Institute, Berlin, Germany (R.E., R.H.). From the 2001 RSNA scientific assembly. Received August 14, 2001; revision requested October 10; revision received January 9, 2002; accepted February 20. Address correspondence to F.D.K. (e-mail: friedrich.knollmann@charite.de).


    ABSTRACT
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 REFERENCES
 
PURPOSE: To assess the potential use of spirometrically gated lung computed tomographic (CT) findings in the diagnosis of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome after lung transplantation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Forty-nine lung transplant recipients were examined at least 8 months after surgery with spirometrically gated thin-section CT of the lung. In addition to visual signs of small-airway disease at CT, mean lung attenuation and the SD were numerically determined and compared with the results of lung function testing at the time of the CT examination and 1 year later by using factorial analysis of variance.

RESULTS: Mean lung attenuation was significantly lower in patients who developed bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome within 1 year after the CT study (-837 HU ± 3) than in patients with persistent normal lung function (-812 HU ± 3, P < .001). With an optimal threshold, sensitivity was 69%, specificity was 71%, and accuracy was 84%. Visual analysis did not significantly contribute to the prognostic power of CT.

CONCLUSION: Spirometrically gated CT measurements of lung attenuation can be used to predict the onset of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome after lung transplantation.

© RSNA, 2002

Index terms: Bronchiolitis obliterans, 60.2191 • Computed tomography (CT), quantitative, 60.1211 • Computed tomography (CT), thin-section, 60.12118 • Lung, transplantation, 60.458


    INTRODUCTION
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 REFERENCES
 
Lung transplantation has evolved as the ultimate therapeutic option in end-stage pulmonary disease. Its long-term success, however, remains limited by the occurrence of chronic graft rejection, which manifests as bronchiolitis obliterans (1). Since bronchiolitis obliterans cannot be diagnosed at lung biopsy in a majority of cases, alternative diagnostic methods are sought for early detection (1). The appearance of bronchiectasis and air trapping at computed tomography (CT) has been used as an indicator of bronchiolitis obliterans with varying accuracy (2,3). According to the concept of airway obstruction as the cause of impaired lung function in patients with bronchiolitis obliterans, this obstruction may manifest as decreased expiratory lung attenuation at CT. Because lung attenuation is highly dependent on the level of inspiration, a spirometrically gated CT technique may improve the accuracy of diagnosing lung attenuation abnormalities (4). Our hypothesis was that, in lung transplant recipients, bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS), could be detected by means of decreased and inhomogeneous lung attenuation at end expiration in spirometrically gated CT measurements.

The purpose of our study, therefore, was to assess the potential use of spirometrically gated lung CT findings in the diagnosis of BOS after lung transplantation.


    MATERIALS AND METHODS
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 REFERENCES
 
In this study, we included 49 lung transplant recipients (28 female and 21 male patients; mean age, 37 years ± 15 [SD]; age range, 11–67 years) in a prospective blinded diagnostic trial 8–85 months (median, 23 months) after surgery. Patients underwent double lung transplantation in 23 instances, heart-lung transplantation in 23 instances, and single lung transplantation in three instances. All patients referred for lung CT between May 1997 and September 1998 were included. Criteria for referral were a posttransplantation period of at least 8 months. All patients with evidence of acute rejection or infectious lung disease that was based on findings at clinical evaluation and on test results were excluded, according to the Guidelines of the International Society of Heart and Lung Transplantation. Institutional review board approval and informed consent were obtained for all procedures.

All patients were examined with a spirometrically gated CT scanner (Somatom Plus 4; Siemens, Forchheim, Germany) at 20%, 50%, and 80% of their vital capacity (VC). No correction was used for obtaining VC in patients in the supine position, because only relative VC data were used as a guideline for spirometric gating. All lung function tests used for the diagnosis of bronchiolitis obliterans were performed with a standard spirometer (Master Screen; Jäger, Würzburg, Germany) and with the patient in the upright position. Scans were acquired at the level of the carina, 5 cm above it, and 5 cm below it. All thin-section CT scans were obtained with 1-mm section thickness, 1-second scanning time, 140-kV voltage, and 146-mA tube current and were reconstructed with a high-resolution adult body kernel. The reconstruction algorithm was AB 82.

Standard postprocessing software (Pulmo-CT; Siemens) was used to determine the mean attenuation of the lung transplant and the SD within each scan. With this software, lung parenchyma was semiautomatically traced, and the outline was manually corrected where necessary. Manual correction was performed by one of the authors (T.W.). Central airways were automatically excluded, and also were excluded with manual correction where indicated. Numeric analysis of lung attenuation included a histogram of attenuation frequency distribution, and determinations of mean lung attenuation and the SD included attenuation values between -1,000 and -500 HU. For bilateral lung transplants, attenuation data from both lungs were pooled.

In double lung transplants, both grafts were from the same donor and were harvested and grafted simultaneously. Since bronchiolitis obliterans is an immunologically mediated process, the concept of chronic rejection implies no differences between the two grafts. Also, lung function test results serve as the parameters that are used to define BOS, and lung function test results cannot be obtained in the two lungs separately. For all statistical tests used, as a condition before the test, each numeric value had to be independent. Because of the systemic nature of bronchiolitis obliterans, this precondition would not be fulfilled if both lungs in one recipient were introduced into the analysis separately.

For visual analysis, all scans were reviewed by a thoracic radiologist (F.D.K.) to determine the presence of bronchiectasis, air trapping, mosaic attenuation, and other abnormalities. Air trapping was defined as the presence of areas of less than normal increases in parenchymal attenuation on expiratory scans (5). Mosaic attenuation was defined as the presence of parenchymal inhomogeneity on inspiratory scans (5). For visual evaluation, a window center of -600 HU and a window width of 1,600 HU were selected in all instances. In one patient, the expiratory scans were excluded from the analysis because of respiratory artifacts.

Pulmonary function test results that were obtained within 2 weeks of the CT examination were used as a reference for diagnosing BOS. Lung function data were obtained retrospectively from the closest possible time either before or after CT, with a maximum of 2 weeks either before or after the CT examination. We also obtained the results of pulmonary function testing 1 year after CT to determine if CT findings could have been used to predict the course of lung function. Pulmonary function was classified according to values for the forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), as defined by the International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation (6). According to that definition, BOS is diagnosed if the FEV1 decreases below 80% of its baseline value. The baseline value is defined as the average of the two highest consecutive measurements obtained 3–6 weeks apart. Since this value may increase over time in some patients, baseline lung function was determined separately for the time of the CT examination and for the follow-up visit 1 year later. Details of this staging system have been published by the International Society of Heart and Lung Transplantation (6) and were applied throughout our investigation.

For statistical analysis, factorial analysis of variance was used to compare mean lung attenuation and the SD at the three image levels and the three levels of inspiration for patients with and without BOS, at both the time of the examination and 1 year later. Data from the different lung levels and inspiratory levels were compared by means of analysis of variance by using anatomic level and level of inspiration as factors. Thus, the attenuation measurements from different levels were not pooled.

Results were recorded as the mean and standard error of the mean. Lung attenuation and the SD (homogeneity) were determined at three levels of inspiration and at three anatomic levels, which accounts for nine images per patient and 18 numeric results for each patient. Pairwise comparisons were determined with the Scheffé correction.

The results of visual analysis were also compared with lung function (Fisher exact test) and lung attenuation (factorial analysis of variance). The level of statistical significance was set at 5% in all instances. Reported results were from all three examined inspiratory levels, and the level with the highest discriminatory power was used to illustrate the potential clinical use.

To determine the diagnostic power of lung attenuation measurements for predicting BOS, an analysis of the receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) was performed. ROCs were computed with a computer program (CLABROC; MacIntosh version, Charles E. Metz, MD, University of Chicago, Illnois, 1991). The Student t test was used for comparisons of ROC curves.

Logistic regression analysis was used to compare the diagnostic powers of lung attenuation measurements and visual signs of small-airway disease at CT.


    RESULTS
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 REFERENCES
 
Mean attenuation of lung transplants was significantly lower (-837 HU ± 3) in the 17 patients with BOS 1 year after the CT examination than in patients with persistent normal lung function (-812 HU ± 3, P < .001, Figs 1, 2).



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Figure 1. Mean lung attenuation as a function of anatomic section position (levels 1-3) and inspiration (% VC) for patients with persistent normal lung function (white boxes) and patients with BOS 1 year after CT (gray boxes). Level 1 is the area 5 cm above the carina, level 2 is the area at the carina, and level 3 is the area 5 cm below the carina. Mean parenchymal attenuation in patients who would develop BOS within 1 year after CT was significantly lower than that in patients with persistent normal lung function.

 


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Figure 2a. Spirometrically gated thin-section CT scans obtained in a double lung transplant recipient with normal pulmonary function at the time of the CT examination who had BOS at presentation 1 year later. (a) Inspiratory scan shows homogeneous parenchymal attenuation. Mean parenchymal attenuation was -878 HU. (b) Expiratory scan shows that lung parenchyma remained homogeneous, and parenchymal attenuation was -858 HU. This case illustrates that the absence of visual indicators of small-airway disease does not exclude a progression to BOS within the next year and that parenchymal hyperinflation, as determined by measurements of parenchymal attenuation, may be used to predict the future course of lung function.

 


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Figure 2b. Spirometrically gated thin-section CT scans obtained in a double lung transplant recipient with normal pulmonary function at the time of the CT examination who had BOS at presentation 1 year later. (a) Inspiratory scan shows homogeneous parenchymal attenuation. Mean parenchymal attenuation was -878 HU. (b) Expiratory scan shows that lung parenchyma remained homogeneous, and parenchymal attenuation was -858 HU. This case illustrates that the absence of visual indicators of small-airway disease does not exclude a progression to BOS within the next year and that parenchymal hyperinflation, as determined by measurements of parenchymal attenuation, may be used to predict the future course of lung function.

 
At the time of the CT examination, mean lung attenuation in patients with BOS (-829 HU ± 4) did not differ from that in patients with normal lung function (-822 HU ± 3, P = .11 HU). Only after excluding patients in whom 1-year follow-up lung function data were not available did the decrease of pulmonary attenuation in patients with BOS at the time of CT indicate the level of statistical significance (-831 HU ± 4 vs -819 HU ± 3, P = .01).

Homogeneity of lung attenuation was measured as the SD of lung attenuation at each level. Patients who developed BOS within 1 year after the CT examination had a more homogeneous distribution of lung attenuation (84 HU ± 1) than did patients whose lung function remained normal (88 HU ± 1, P = .016, Fig 3). The homogeneity of lung attenuation was not different between patients with BOS and those with normal lung function test results at CT (88 HU ± 1 and 86 HU ± 1, respectively, P = .3).



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Figure 3. Homogeneity of lung attenuation as a function of anatomic section position (levels 1-3) and inspiratory level (% VC) in patients with persistent normal lung function (white boxes) and in patients with BOS 1 year after CT (gray boxes). Level 1 is the area 5 cm above the carina, level 2 is the area at the carina, and level 3 is the area 5 cm below the carina. In patients who developed BOS within 1 year after CT, a more homogeneous distribution of parenchymal attenuation was displayed than that in patients with persistent normal lung function.

 
Lung attenuation decreased during inspiration (P < .001, Fig 1) because the increased pulmonary air content decreased parenchymal attenuation. Also, parenchymal attenuation at the lung base was greater than that at more apical section positions (P = .007, Fig 1). Similarly, lung attenuation was more homogeneously distributed during inspiration (P = .02, Fig 3) and at apical section positions (P < .001, Fig 3).

At CT, 15 patients displayed a decline of lung function, which was consistent with BOS (Table 1, Fig 4). After 1 year, features of this study were as follows: Five additional patients were classified as having BOS. Three patients died during follow-up. In six patients, no follow-up lung function test results were available. In one patient, lung function improved from initially poor to normal.


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TABLE 1. Lung Function in 49 Lung Transplant Recipients at CT and 1 Year Later

 


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Figure 4. Time course of lung function at CT (%) and 1 year later (%2). In general, pulmonary function declined with time.

 
At 1 year after the CT study, our cohort included 17 patients with BOS (Table 2). The degree of BOS is reproduced in Figure 4.


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TABLE 2. Course of Pulmonary Function in 49 Lung Transplant Recipients

 
Patients with persistent normal lung function had significantly higher lung attenuation (-812 HU ± 3) than did patients with BOS (-832 HU ± 4, P < .01) and patients with initially normal lung function who developed BOS during follow-up (-849 HU ± 5, P < .01). Patients who developed BOS during follow-up also had a lower lung attenuation when compared with patients with BOS at the initial examination (P = .03).

At CT, visual signs considered indicative of small-airway disease were not predictive of BOS at 1 year after the CT study (Fig 5, Table 3). At CT, only mosaic attenuation was significantly associated with BOS, and the sensitivity of this sign was 27% (4 of 15 [Table 3]).



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Figure 5a. Spirometrically gated thin-section CT scans in a recipient of a heart and lung transplant whose pulmonary function was normal at CT and remained normal 1 year later. (a) Inspiratory scan shows homogeneous parenchymal attenuation. Mean attenuation was -778 HU. (b) Expiratory scan shows a patchy pattern of parenchymal attenuation inhomogeneity, which qualified as air trapping. Mean parenchymal attenuation was -717 HU. This case illustrates that the presence of visual signs of small-airway disease at thin-section CT does not necessarily suggest a diagnosis of BOS nor a deterioration of pulmonary function within the next year.

 


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Figure 5b. Spirometrically gated thin-section CT scans in a recipient of a heart and lung transplant whose pulmonary function was normal at CT and remained normal 1 year later. (a) Inspiratory scan shows homogeneous parenchymal attenuation. Mean attenuation was -778 HU. (b) Expiratory scan shows a patchy pattern of parenchymal attenuation inhomogeneity, which qualified as air trapping. Mean parenchymal attenuation was -717 HU. This case illustrates that the presence of visual signs of small-airway disease at thin-section CT does not necessarily suggest a diagnosis of BOS nor a deterioration of pulmonary function within the next year.

 

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TABLE 3. Correlation of Visual Signs and BOS at CT and 1 Year Later

 
Bronchiectasis at visual analysis was associated with decreased mean lung attenuation as an indicator of small-airway disease, but the decrease was uniformly distributed and was present at all levels of inspiration (Table 4). Neither air trapping nor mosaic attenuation was associated with lung attenuation measurements at any particular level of inspiration (Table 4).


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TABLE 4. Correlation of Visual Signs of Small-Airway Disease with Measurements of Lung Attenuation at CT

 
Analysis of the ROCs for use in predicting BOS 1 year after CT examination revealed that measurements of mean lung attenuation had greater diagnostic power (area under the ROC curve, Az = 0.74) than did measurements of lung attenuation variability (Az = 0.59, P = .04, Fig 6). To determine an ideal diagnostic cutoff point, the attenuation threshold with the greatest sum of sensitivity and specificity was selected from the critical test result values of the fitted binormal ROC curve. For the ideal cutoff point of -819 HU for mean lung attenuation, sensitivity was calculated from the fitted ROC data as 66.4% and specificity was calculated as 68.4%. Patient raw data were used to calculate the following: sensitivity, 69% (11 of 16); specificity, 71% (15 of 21); and accuracy (ie, patients were correctly classified), 84% (31 of 37). ROC data referred to the most caudal level at 50% VC, where the best differentiation between patients with and without BOS 1 year after the CT study was achieved with pairwise comparison (P = .01, Fig 1).



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Figure 6. ROCs for predicting BOS 1 year after CT from spirometrically gated thin-section CT measurements of mean lung attenuation and the SD. The predictive power of mean parenchymal attenuation is superior to that of parenchymal homogeneity in lung transplant recipients. FPF = false-positive fraction, TPF = true-positive fraction (sensitivity).

 
At logistic regression analysis, of all CT parameters including the time since surgery, only mean lung attenuation appeared as an independent predictor of BOS 1 year after CT examination (P = .02; relative hazard, 1.33 for a decrease of lung attenuation of 10 HU; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.74).

At CT, only mosaic attenuation was associated with a diagnosis of BOS (P = .02; relative hazard, 2.3; no CI available because of the small number of events).


    DISCUSSION
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 REFERENCES
 
A decrease of mean lung attenuation to less than -819 HU at spirometrically gated thin-section CT of the lung 5 cm below the carina and in midinspiration was the most powerful predictor of BOS in our cohort of lung transplant recipients. Our findings confirm the usefulness of numeric lung attenuation analysis by using a spirometrically gated CT technique to ensure reproducibility of the attenuation measurements (710).

While the decrease of lung attenuation in patients with future BOS confirms a concept of small-airway disease with pulmonary hyperinflation as the pathophysiologic basis in chronic graft rejection after lung transplantation, visual signs of small-airway disease, such as bronchiectasis, air trapping, and mosaic attenuation, at CT were less useful for predicting the course of pulmonary function. Mosaic attenuation was the most powerful diagnostic sign of BOS at CT examination, but it could not be used to predict the course of pulmonary function thereafter. It remains to be seen whether mosaic attenuation indicates an already advanced degree of bronchiolitis obliterans (11) and is, therefore, not a good predictor of later pulmonary disease or if mosaic attenuation may reverse to normal later (12).

Our finding that the usefulness of signs of small-airway disease at CT for diagnosing BOS is limited is in good agreement with findings in other investigations (3). According to an analysis of signs of small-airway disease at thin-section CT in volunteers, air trapping appears as a nonspecific sign, with increased incidence in smokers but with no particular correlation with lung function test results (13). These findings are in contrast to those of another investigation in which advanced stages of air trapping were suggestive of bronchiolitis obliterans later after transplantation (14). There is one important difference between our data and information in earlier reports: The time between surgery and CT examination was shorter in our study (mean, 28 months) than it was in the study reported by Bankier et al (14) (29 months until the first and 51 months until the last CT examination, on average).

Lee et al (3) also included findings of earlier CT examinations but used lung biopsy findings and additional pulmonary function parameters as indicators of bronchiolitis obliterans. Therefore, their study findings cannot be directly compared with our data, which are based on definitions provided by the International Society of Heart and Lung Transplantation.

The cause of reduced lung attenuation in patients who will develop BOS within the next year as compared with patients who, at presentation, have BOS initially can only be speculated on. One explanation is that the course of chronic rejection results in greatest attenuation reduction early and that features such as mosaic attenuation and air trapping counteract the reduction of parenchymal attenuation as BOS progresses with time.

To compare our results with those of earlier investigations, we need to take into account that there are few studies of CT lung attenuation in lung transplant recipients available to date, and most other studies (2,3,11,15,16) included smaller cohorts and only visual analysis and used an unspecified time between lung transplantation and CT, uncertain inclusion bias, or different end points. One major problem in the assessment of the CT signs of small-airway disease is the fact that the visual CT diagnosis is operator dependent (17), and the level of inspiration often remains uncertain.

It has been found previously that ungated CT of the lung does not allow for reproducible levels of lung attenuation (18). With the use of spirometrically gated CT and numeric analysis of lung attenuation, both factors can be approached. For the semiautomatic analysis of global lung attenuation used in this study, operator-dependent variability has been estimated as less than 1 HU for spirometrically gated scans (9). Overall reproducibility of the lung attenuation measurements has been cited as 10 HU, or 1% (8). This variability still allows for a meaningful prediction of lung function as evidenced by the predictive powers in our group.

Observer variation for visually diagnosing small-airway disease is acknowledged as a study limitation, but other researchers (14) demonstrated the magnitude of the problem. This variation was one rationale for conducting the present investigation of applying numeric estimates of lung attenuation in a spirometrically controlled setting.

The validity of our measurements is confirmed by the observed decrease of parenchymal attenuation in inspiration and near the lung base, which parallels the expected physiologic distribution of lung ventilation. Further evidence for the validity of our measurements is offered by a more homogeneous distribution of parenchymal attenuation during inspiration and at apical section positions.

Surprisingly, visually apparent instances of air trapping did not display any significantly higher degree of lung attenuation inhomogeneity at numeric analysis. Evidence of the fact that visually apparent inhomogeneity of lung attenuation did not correlate with numeric measurements is shown in Table 4. Visually apparent inhomogeneity of lung attenuation manifests as either mosaic attenuation or air trapping, and both features did not correlate with the SD of lung attenuation in the patients in our study group.

This lack of correlation may be attributable to the facts that lung homogeneity decreases at expiration (19), and the visual diagnosis of air trapping depends on expiratory scans. Apparently, the decrease of lung homogeneity on expiratory scans confounds further decreases caused by air trapping to such an extent that the latter cannot be discriminated by means of exploratory numeric analysis. The effect of expiration on lung homogeneity indicates that a constant level of inspiration must be ascertained for a valid diagnosis of air trapping, which necessitates spirometric gating. An alternative explanation for the lack of an association between air trapping and BOS is that the selected level of expiration at 20% VC may not be sufficient for detecting air trapping. This matter awaits further clarification.

However, direct correlation of lung attenuation with lung function test results confirms that attenuation inhomogeneities were not associated with bronchiolitis obliterans in the patients in our study group.

The significant correlation of visually determined mosaic attenuation with BOS at CT, but a lack of such an association with lung attenuation SD, suggests that changes of lung homogeneity in mosaic attenuation may be too subtle to be reliably detected by using numeric measurements in a larger cohort, which most likely is due to significant interindividual variability and the physiologic ventrodorsal attenuation gradient (20).

Differences in lung attenuation among patients with and without air trapping displayed wide overlap and were not statistically different. It is, therefore, assumed that the numeric mean attenuation differences are due to chance and do not have any specific significance.

The limited capability of CT for assisting in the diagnosis of BOS at examination may reflect the time course of BOS, since our patients were examined earlier after surgery than were patients in other published series. Thus, we speculate that early BOS may correlate with numeric estimates of lung attenuation and that as BOS progresses to clinically overt disease, correlation, as defined by lung function tests, is lost. Also, it is important to note that findings of only a few investigations (2,11,1416) regarding that matter have indicated that CT can be used to diagnose BOS by using visual analysis. In the other investigations (2,3,11,1416), another confounding factor was that the exact level of inspiration was not controlled for. The detection of signs of BOS at CT may require more complete expiration than was selected in our investigation.

The present investigation differs from earlier CT investigations (2,3,11,1416) of lung transplant recipients in several regards. One other earlier report (15) on the use of CT for the diagnosis of bronchiolitis obliterans describes better diagnostic powers for the signs of airway disease at CT. This report included patients who were examined at a later period after transplantation, and the diagnosis of bronchiolitis obliterans was established by means of biopsy findings within 6 months from the study index time in only five of 11 patients. Thus, the diagnosis of bronchiolitis obliterans may not have reflected the status at the time of CT. Since the validity of lung biopsy findings for diagnosing bronchiolitis obliterans is notoriously low, use of this method as a standard of reference remains questionable.

If one must search for an alternative method for diagnosing bronchiolitis obliterans, one must consider that a close correlation with lung function test results at the time of the test cannot reveal any diagnostic powers beyond those of the method of reference. Therefore, comparisons of CT findings with lung function test results at CT alone (16) cannot reveal the potential of CT as a clinically useful method. Since early prediction of bronchiolitis obliterans during the later clinical course remains the most important potential application, comparison of CT parameters with follow-up lung function test results seems the only possible approach for establishing a prognostic method for predicting BOS at a time when preventive intervention may still be feasible.

To date, to our knowledge, augmentation of the immunosuppressive regimen, with standard therapy and the use of new, more potent immunosuppressive drugs, is the only possible response to signs of chronic graft rejection (1). However, until now, early prediction of chronic rejection has not been feasible, and the advent of a highly predictive method would greatly improve the chances for a more effective response. Although quantitative CT of the lung could not be used to predict BOS in all instances, a significant correlation was found as soon as 1 year after the CT examination. Future investigations are needed to confirm these findings in a larger cohort and over a longer follow-up period.

To assess the implications of differences in mean lung attenuation for a specific individual, ROC analysis was performed. According to the results of that analysis, the predictive powers of an optimally selected diagnostic threshold were determined. While the predictive power of this test is clearly less than ideal, there is no alternative method that can be used for predicting the future course of lung function available at present. Therefore, we view our study as a starting point for future investigations, specifically on the potential survival benefit of an earlier prediction of lung function and, consequently, intensified immunosuppressive therapy.

Measurements of lung attenuation were not used for planning clinical treatment in this prospective investigation, since the predictive power of these parameters, to our knowledge, was heretofore unknown. It is our hope that measurements of lung attenuation can be used for clinical purposes in the future. Further, the effectiveness of such an approach to selecting candidates for an intensified regimen of immunosuppression needs to be evaluated in another prospective investigation. Since the definition of BOS by the International Society of Heart and Lung Transplantation is based on lung function only, clinical decisions will be based on lung function tests in the near future. However, if our results are corroborated by those of other investigators, and results of prospective clinical investigations can be used to establish a clinical benefit of predicting BOS by using CT measurements of lung attenuation, imaging could add hitherto unavailable intelligence that is vitally important both for the individual lung transplant recipient and for the role of lung transplantation in general.

In conclusion, results of this investigation indicate that spirometrically gated CT measurements of lung attenuation can be used to predict the onset of BOS in lung transplant recipients. Potential clinical applications include the selection of high-risk candidates for whom aggressive medical therapy may be warranted to prevent the predicted course of lung disease.


    ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
 
The authors are grateful for editorial assistance from Anne Gale, MS, and the statistical expertise of Julia Stein, MS.


    FOOTNOTES
 
Abbreviations: BOS = bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome, FEV1 = forced expiratory volume in 1 second, ROC = receiver operating characteristic, VC = vital capacity

Author contributions: Guarantor of integrity of entire study, F.D.K.; study concepts and design, F.D.K., R.E.; literature research, F.D.K., R.E., T.W.; clinical studies, F.D.K., R.E., T.W.; data acquisition and analysis/ interpretation, F.D.K., R.E., T.W.; statistical analysis, F.D.K.; manuscript preparation, F.D.K., R.E.; manuscript definition of intellectual content, F.D.K., R.E., R.H., R.F.; manuscript editing, R.E., R.H., R.F.; manuscript revision/review, F.D.K., R.E., R.H., R.F.; manuscript final version approval, all authors.


    REFERENCES
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 REFERENCES
 

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