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Evidence-based Practice |
1 From the Program for the Assessment of Radiological Technology (ART Program) and the Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics (Y.S.L., M.C.J.M.K., K.V., M.G.M.H.), Radiology (Y.S.L., M.C.J.M.K., K.V., M.G.M.H.), Surgery (J.N.M.I.), and Internal Medicine (W.W.), Erasmus MC Rotterdam, Rm EE21-40a, Dr Molewaterplein 50, 3015 GE Rotterdam, the Netherlands; and Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Mass (M.G.M.H.). From the 2001 RSNA scientific assembly. Received November 26, 2001; revision requested February 7, 2002; revision received March 21; accepted May 13. Supported in part by the Foundation for Health Care Efficiency Research and by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research. Address correspondence to M.G.M.H. (e-mail: hunink@epib.fgg.eur.nl).
| ABSTRACT |
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MATERIALS AND METHODS: In a decision-analytic model, the societal cost-effectiveness of digital subtraction angiography (DSA), gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance (MR) angiography, contrast materialenhanced spiral computed tomographic (CT) angiography, and combinations of these imaging techniques was evaluated. Outcome measures included lifetime cost, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. A base-case analysis was performed with a 40-year-old female donor and a 40-year-old female recipient.
RESULTS: For the donor, MR angiography (24.05 QALYs and $9,000) dominated all strategies except for MR angiography with CT angiography, which had an incremental ratio of $245,000 per QALY. For the recipient, DSA and DSA with MR angiography yielded similar results (10.46 QALYs and $179,000) and dominated all other strategies. When results for donor and recipient were combined, DSA dominated all other strategies (34.51 QALYs and $188,000). If DSA was associated with a 99% specificity or less for detection of renal disease, MR angiography with CT angiography was superior (34.47 QALYs and $190,000).
CONCLUSION: For preoperative imaging in a potential renal donor, DSA is the most cost-effective strategy if it has a specificity greater than 99% for detection of renal disease; otherwise, MR angiography with CT angiography is the most cost-effective strategy.
© RSNA, 2002
Index terms: Computed tomography (CT), comparative studies, 81.12115 Cost-effectiveness Digital subtraction angiography, comparative studies, 81.124 Kidney, transplantation, 81.455 Magnetic resonance (MR), comparative studies, 81.12142, 81.12143
| INTRODUCTION |
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At present, imaging at Erasmus MC Rotterdam, the Netherlands, includes intraarterial digital subtraction angiography (DSA) for the examination of the renal arteries, and immediately after, urography is performed for screening the urinary system. DSA with urography is known to be an accurate method, but it requires catheterization, the use of iodine-containing contrast material, and exposure of the patient to ionizing radiation (13,14). Furthermore, DSA is an expensive technique (15), and with the current strategy, only limited information about the venous anatomy is obtained. This information could be important, especially if nephrectomy is performed laparoscopically.
To overcome the drawbacks of the presently used imaging, other techniques have been proposed to replace it. Researchers in a number of studies have assessed the accuracy and feasibility of alternative techniques, such as gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance (MR) angiography (7,1619) or computed tomographic (CT) angiography (2027). These techniques can depict both the arterial and venous vasculature and the collecting system and parenchyma. MR angiography accurately depicts the anatomy of the vasculature, but mild forms of fibromuscular dysplasia may be missed (7). CT angiography has capabilities similar to those of MR angiography, but CT angiography has a higher resolution than does MR angiography and is, furthermore, technically more robust. The disadvantages of CT angiography, however, are that the patient is exposed to ionizing radiation and that iodinated contrast material is needed. Nonetheless, both MR angiography and CT angiography are less expensive than DSA (19).
To our knowledge, only two studies were conducted in which CT angiography and gadolinium-enhanced MR angiography were compared (28,29). In these studies, however, the techniques were compared in regard to the depiction of only arterial and venous anatomy. Furthermore, the currently used imaging strategies vary among centers at which transplantation is performed (4). This variation in the use of imaging strategies indicates the prevailing uncertainty as to what the optimal strategy is and, thus, emphasizes the need for further investigation of those that are available. Thus, the purpose of our study was to determine the most cost-effective strategy for preoperative imaging performed in potential living renal donors.
| MATERIALS AND METHODS |
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With the model, we considered that the presence of renovascular anomalies (ie, multiple renal arteries or veins, early arterial branching) influences the choice of which kidney to transplant and increases the duration of the surgery, which results in higher costs.
Furthermore, we also considered that a donor with renal disease diagnosed during the radiologic examination will be treated and may need dialysis later in life. A donor who has one diseased kidney after transplantation and a recipient who receives a diseased kidney will develop clinical renal disease at a later point in life and may require dialysis. A potential recipient whose donor receivedcorrectly or incorrectlya diagnosis of renal disease will continue to receive treatment with dialysis. A recipient whose transplant fails returns to dialysis.
Data Sources and Assumptions
Background information.A systematic review of the literature pertaining to living renal donor transplantation was performed. The search strategy we used to retrieve the literature-based information was as follows: living donors AND kidney NOT cadaver NOT developing countries NOT DNA NOT Histocompatibility testing NOT reoperation NOT Kidney/*histology NOT Kidney Calculi/*etiology NOT liver NOT drug therapy NOT pancreas transplantation NOT antibodies. Additional data were obtained from our own clinical data and from the Dutch statistics. We (Y.S.L., M.C.J.M.K.) performed a cost analysis for the local setting. Tables 24 present the parameters of the model, with the values used in the base-case analysis and the ranges over which these values were varied in the sensitivity analyses. (More detail on the computation of the test characteristics, probabilities, and costs is available on request.)
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We considered the currently used strategy (ie, DSA with urography) as the reference standard for detection of renal disease and surgery as the reference standard for detection of renovascular anomalies. Even though the sensitivity and specificity of DSA for detection of renal disease are probably not 100%, DSA is at present the best possible reference standard since disease cannot be detected during surgery. For detection of anomalies, we considered surgery as the reference standard. A disadvantage of choosing surgery as the reference standard is, however, that only one of the two kidneys is seen during surgery, which is most likely the one with the least complicated anatomy.
We (Y.S.L., M.G.M.H.) estimated the sensitivity and specificity for detecting renal disease and the sensitivity for detecting anomalies associated with gadolinium-enhanced MR angiography and contrast-enhanced spiral CT angiography on the basis of data from published studies (18,19,33,34). The specificity for detection of anomalies was not used, because false-positive test results have no consequences since costs are incurred only if anomalies are present. Imaging characteristics are presented in Table 2.
Prevalence of anomalies and kidney disease.On the basis of data from large studies in regard to the preoperative examination of renal donors (13,26,3638), we (Y.S.L., M.G.M.H.) estimated the prevalence of renal anomalies and renal disease in potential living renal donors (Table 3).
Donor risks.We (Y.S.L., M.G.M.H.) estimated the morbidity and mortality associated with various strategies (31,32,35) and the morbidity associated with laparoscopic nephrectomy (39) on the basis of data from the literature. Since a reliable estimate for mortality associated with laparoscopic donor nephrectomy was not available, it was assumed to be the mortality associated with open nephrectomy (6). Long-term survival among renal donors was estimated on the basis of Dutch mortality statistics (55), since on the basis of data in the literature, we determined that this is the same as or better than the survival of the general population (42).
If, however, a renal donor has a diseased kidney after transplantation, and this diseased kidney has escaped detection during the diagnostic work-up, we assumed a 25% chance that the donor would need renal replacement therapy after 15 years. If a donor receives a diagnosis of renal disease during the work-up, the donor is treated for the disease. On the basis of our own clinical data, we estimated that 5% (one of 19) of these donors who receive a diagnosis of disease and are treated would require dialysis after 15 years because of untreatable or recurrent disease. The survival rate for a donor who requires dialysis after 15 years was assumed to be the same as that of the general population for the first 15 years and to be the same as that of patients receiving dialysis after this period. Data regarding donor risks are presented in Table 3.
Recipient risks.Morbidity associated with renal implantation was estimated on the basis of our own clinical data. We (Y.S.L., J.N.M.I.) estimated surgical mortality to be 1%. Relative risks of mortality for recipients of a renal transplant (4346) and for patients receiving both CAPD and hemodialysis (47) compared with the mortality of the general Dutch population (55) were computed on the basis of data from the literature (4347). To determine a relative risk of mortality for dialysis, the relative risks of CAPD and hemodialysis were averaged according to the prevalences of both methods among patients receiving dialysis in the Netherlands (48). We also computed transplant failure rates on the basis of data from the literature in regard to graft survival (4345,49,50). We assumed that recipients who received a diseased transplant had a survival rate that was the same as that of recipients of a nondiseased transplant for the first 10 years, and we assumed that they would need dialysis after this period. Table 3 includes the data on recipient risks.
Quality weights.Because renal donors are healthy individuals, their quality-of-life estimate was considered to be 1. However, for donors who need dialysis after 15 years, the estimate was assumed to be 1 for the first 15 years and the same as the estimate for patients receiving dialysis after this period. The quality-of-life estimates for transplant recipients and patients receiving dialysis were obtained from the literature (51,52) (Table 4). We assumed that the quality weight of a recipient who received a diseased transplant was the same as the quality weight of a transplant recipient for the first 10 years and the same as the quality weight associated with dialysis after this period.
Costs.To compute costs of imaging and transplantation, the Dutch guidelines for computing costs in health care were used (56). Costs were determined from the societal perspective and included both medical and nonmedical costs (Table 4).
Direct medical costs included costs for personnel, materials, equipment, supporting departments, housing and overhead, and hospitalization and consultations. For the computations, we obtained data from the Departments of Radiology and of Surgery and the Finance Department of our center. For the computation of equipment costs, we used the annuitization method, with a discount rate of 3% (30). Costs for hospitalization and consultations were computed by using prices from the Dutch guidelines and data from our center.
Furthermore, we (Y.S.L., M.C.J.M.K.) computed direct nonmedical costs of the imaging strategies and of surgery of both donor and recipient, which included travel expenses and time costs. On the basis of the Dutch guidelines, travel expenses were calculated as travel distance multiplied by a fixed cost per kilometer. Time costs were computed by using the estimated time required to undergo the imaging and the surgery and the average sex- and age-specific wage rates (57). We obtained wage rates from the Central Bureau of Statistics, Voorburg/Heerlen, the Netherlands.
We assumed that annual direct medical costs for a donor after transplantation were the same as the costs of an outpatient visit (56). Annual direct medical costs of receiving a renal transplant and yearly costs of CAPD and hemodialysis were computed on the basis of data from the literature (53,54). For the annual direct nonmedical costs, we computed travel expenses and time costs in the same manner as we computed these costs for the imaging and the surgery. All costs were standardized to Dutch guilders for the year 2000 and subsequently were converted to U.S. dollars for the year 2000 (exchange rate: 10,000 Dutch guilders = $4,186 = 4,545 euros).
Indirect costs were not considered in the computation of costs. Production loss for a donor does not occur because the general health of a donor was assumed to be the same before and after donation. For the recipient, production loss was assumed to be negligible, since recipients pre- and posttransplantation employment rates did not differ significantly (58).
Analyses
The lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained were calculated for each strategy. First, these data were calculated for the donor and recipient separately, and subsequently, the total lifetime cost and total QALYs were calculated for each strategy for donor and recipient combined. Both QALYs and costs were discounted at 3% (range, 0%10%) per year. On the basis of costs and QALYs for donor and recipient considered separately, we computed incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. To enable decision making for both donor and recipient combined, we summed the costs for the recipient and donor, summed their respective QALYs, and calculated the corresponding incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.
Strategies that were dominated or extended dominated were eliminated from further consideration. A strategy was considered to be dominated by another strategy if costs were higher, whereas QALYs were lower than they were for the other strategy. A strategy was considered to be extended dominated by another strategy if it had a higher incremental cost-effectiveness ratio and lower QALYs. A strategy that was both more costly and more effective was considered to be cost effective if its incremental cost-effectiveness ratio did not exceed the threshold of societys willingness to pay for gaining 1 QALY (R) (59). A recently published article indicated that R was $25,000$400,000 (60).
Since the purchasing power of $1 in the United States was about the same as that of 1 Dutch guilder in the Netherlands in the year 2000, we used an R of 100,000 Dutch guilders ($41,000) as our baseline estimate and varied R from 25,000 to 400,000 Dutch guilders ($10,000$168,000) in our sensitivity analyses. All analyses were performed with statistical software (DATA 3.5.7; TreeAge Software, Williamstown, Mass). A base-case analysis was performed with a 40-year-old female donor and a 40-year-old female recipient. We performed one-way sensitivity analyses to test if our baseline results were sensitive to varying all estimates over plausible ranges. In addition, we performed several two-way sensitivity analyses.
| RESULTS |
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In two-way sensitivity analyses, we varied both the prevalence of disease and sensitivity or specificity of MR angiography or CT angiography for detection of renal disease. The analysis for the optimal decision from the combined perspective of donor and recipient, when sensitivity of MR angiography and prevalence of disease were varied, is shown in Figure 2. At low prevalences of disease, DSA is the most cost effective. When prevalence is slightly higher, MR angiography with CT angiography is superior. Contrary to what we would have expected, at high prevalence of disease, MR angiography is the most cost effective when its sensitivity for detection of renal disease is low, and CT angiography is the most cost effective when sensitivity of MR angiography for disease is high.
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| DISCUSSION |
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Several general limitations to our study should be mentioned. First, the model was based on multiple data sources. Second, much of the information used in this study was obtained from the literature and, thus, may be subject to publication bias. Furthermore, generalizability is limited because cost data were obtained from only our own center. In addition, imaging protocols for each of the techniques, characteristics of both the donor and recipient population, and expertise may vary among transplantation centers.
Limitations more specifically related to our model included limited availability of data. No literature data were available concerning survival with renal disease. Pozniak and colleagues (26) argued that fibromuscular dysplasia is relatively stable in patients older than 40 years and that most donors are approximately 40 years of age. However, arterial stenosis is known to progress. Thus, we took into account the possibility that donors would need dialysis after a number of years and varied the estimates over a wide range to assess possible changes in results. Also, few data have been published that can be used to quantify the quality of life of renal donors. On the basis of the available qualitative literature (61), we assumed the donors were perfectly healthy. Further research into the quality of life of renal donors is necessary, however, because preserving the quality of life of the donor is a high priority.
Information concerning the test characteristics of the imaging strategies for detection of renal disease is also lacking. Most studies report characteristics for detection of arterial anomalies, such as multiple renal arteries and early arterial branching. These anomalies, however, only influence the costs of the surgery that the donor undergoes because the length of the surgery is increased. More important for the radiologic examination are the sensitivity and specificity with respect to detection of renal disease, since these influence both costs and QALYs in regard to both donor and recipient. Therefore, researchers in future studies should focus on test characteristics of imaging strategies for the detection of renal disease rather than on test characteristics of those for the detection of renal anomalies.
Several technical implications of our analyses can be mentioned. First, some of our results were counterintuitive but, on reflection, could be explained and helped us obtain insight into how various factors could and should contribute to the decision. For example, counter to our intuition, we found that DSA is the most cost-effective option at low prevalence of disease (Fig 2). This can be explained by the fact that, at low prevalence of disease, specificity is more influential. A high transplantation rate is more cost effective from the combined perspective of both donor and recipient because of the benefits to the recipient. Because false-positive results imply no transplantation, a high specificity is required, and DSA has the greatest specificity of 100%. At higher prevalence of disease, sensitivity becomes more important, and for the transplantation rate to be high, a high false-negative rate (implying transplantation), and thus low sensitivity, is required. This explains why MR angiography is the most cost-effective option when prevalence of disease is high and sensitivity for detection of disease is low.
With consideration of only the donors results (Fig 3), it can be seen that the counterintuitive results from the combined perspective are indeed caused by the benefit to the recipient (both in terms of QALY gains and cost savings) through a higher transplantation rate.
Second, a one-way sensitivity analysis showed that CT angiography is most cost effective if its specificity is 100%. Since results in studies in the literature are contradictory as to the ability of CT angiography to depict or exclude fibromuscular dysplasia (22,26,34,6264), one can argue that a specificity of 100% will not be attainable. However, researchers in all studies used singledetector row spiral CT angiographic equipment, and one might argue that with multidetector row spiral CT angiography, a higher specificity of CT angiography could be determined. Even if 100% specificity can be determined, the harmful effects of radiation exposure should also be considered.
Furthermore, although some authors advocate the use of MR angiography in addition to DSA to depict venous anomalies, the addition of MR angiography to the imaging strategy cannot be cost effective, because the additional costs that result from having to deal with anomalies during the surgery are less than the cost of MR angiography. However, in our analysis we did not take into account the confidence of the surgeon who performed the transplantation. One would expect that having imaging data prior to surgery would enhance the surgeons confidence. Quantification of this increased confidence could translate into an increase in the surgeons quality of life. If an analysis is performed from the societal perspective, this should also be considered. We believed, however, that including the surgeons quality of life would be extending the analysis too far.
Finally, in the analyses, the "no test, always transplantation" reference strategy appeared to be the most cost effective option for the combined perspective of the donor and the recipient. As has been stated, however, performing no test at all in donors would be unethical, since the transplantation team relies on the findings on the images in planning and performing the surgery (28) and because the team should not compromise its care for the safety of the donors (22).
In the analysis of the clinical implications of our results, we should emphasize the importance of the perspective used. If costs and effectiveness of only the donor were considered, MR angiography would be best because it is associated with a lower transplantation rate. To optimize the recipients outcome, it would be best if the donor underwent DSA or DSA with MR angiography. When the combined perspective of donor and recipient was considered, DSA was the most cost effective. The outcomes of the recipient may outweigh those of the donor in this combined result, because, for the recipient, the difference in QALYs gained varies more among the strategies.
The choice of how to combine the outcomes of two subjects, in this case, the donor and the recipient, is not as straightforward as it may seem. According to Hippocratess principle of "first do no harm," we may believe that the donors survival and quality of life should weigh more in the overall analysis. According to the utility theory applied in the context of cost-effectiveness analysis of health care, all QALYs are considered the same, regardless of who benefits from the gained QALYs (57). In accordance with this theory, we valued a QALY of a donor the same as a QALY of the recipient. It may, however, be argued, that a QALY of the donor should be weighed more heavily than a QALY of the recipient, because the donor gives up QALYs for the benefit of the recipient. Such an argument would be based on the notion that "losses loom larger than gains" (65). Altruistic motives of the donor were not considered in this model, since the desire to donate is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to quantify.
In conclusion, for the preoperative radiologic examination performed in potential living renal donors, DSA is the most cost-effective strategy when it is considered as the reference standard, but if the specificity of DSA for the detection of disease is 99% or less, which is probable, MR angiography with CT angiography is the most cost-effective strategy.
| FOOTNOTES |
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Author contributions: Guarantor of integrity of entire study, M.G.M.H.; study concepts, all authors; study design, Y.S.L., M.C.J.M.K., K.V., M.G.M.H.; literature research, Y.S.L.; clinical studies, M.C.J.M.K., J.N.M.I.; data acquisition, Y.S.L., M.C.J.M.K., J.N.M.I.; data analysis/interpretation, all authors; statistical analysis, Y.S.L., M.G.M.H.; manuscript preparation, Y.S.L.; manuscript editing, Y.S.L., M.G.M.H.; manuscript definition of intellectual content, revision/review, and final version approval, all authors.
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